The housing market in the city of Pickering has undergone a major transformation over the past decade, with Pickering home prices showing preposterous increases.
In 2013, Durham region remained affordable for most working households. Heck, a household where both spouses earned $100K a year could own a detached home for about 2.5x their income making it very attainable for most households.
A lot can change in 10 years.
Pickering Home Prices: January 2013 vs January 2023
According to data from the Toronto Region Real Estate Board, the average price of a detached home in Pickering in 2013 was $540,453. Fast forward to January 2023, and that number has more than doubled to an average price of $1,150,596.
That's an increase of 113%!!
Today, an average detached house is more than 5x the combined family income of two people earning $100K per year; that's doubled in the last 10 years.
Scary? I know.
The trend is similar for townhouses though to a lesser degree, with the average price rising from $420,000 in 2013 to $669,944 in 2023 which works out to an increase of 60% over that span.
Condos have also seen a significant increase in price, with the average price rising from $297,471 in 2013 to $559,500 in 2023 or an increase of 88%.
The detached home is the holy grail of home ownership so the fact that Pickering detached homes doubled in price in not shocking to me; I lived it.
In about 2016, buyers from Toronto started to clue in to this fact when home prices in Toronto continued to skyrocket. Buyers in droves pushed outwards into Pickering, and further into Durham region where homes were cheap, comparatively speaking.
I remember my clients at the time getting priced out of neighbourhoods just about every week. There'd be 10 offers on a home and we'd get blown out of the water by $100K and have to "broaden the search."
For one particular client we submitted an offer nearly every week on a house and went from looking in Cathedral Bluffs in Scarborough in July and losing bidding wars every week until they locked down a sweet detached home in Pickering in August
How Did We End Up Here?
There are a myriad of reasons why we ended up here: cheap borrowing costs (using HELOC's to buy investment property), increased competition from foreign buyers, immigration exceeding new housing, Covid-19 pandemic, government indifference to a housing crisis and more.
Take your pick!
Going forward, it will be tough to get homes back in the range where a home can be purchased for less than 4x the average income for that city.
For instance, Pickering's average household income in 2022 was $99,701 and a one bedroom condo is 5 times the average household income; a detached home is more than 11 times the average household income in Pickering. This math sucks for pretty much everyone!
Unfortunately for first-time buyers and young people, the immigration targets for 2023-2025 will likely mean increased competition for housing going forward and sustained price growth seems inevitable in the long term.
There are creative ways to get into a great neighbourhoods without having to be house-poor for the rest of your life.
Every situation is different so please don't be afraid to contact me if you want to ask anything.
Contact me below or in the chatbox to the right and I'll respond immediately.